EXPANDING RURAL EMPLOYMENT IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE-BASED PATHWAYS THROUGH AGRIFOOD VALUE CHAINS, RURAL ENTERPRISE, SERVICES, AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Abstract

Rural employment is a central development issue in Uzbekistan because almost half of the population lives in rural areas, while agriculture remains a major employer and informal work is widespread. The policy problem is not simply to increase the number of economically active people, but to generate stable, productive, and progressively formal employment outside as well as within primary agriculture. This study identifies the most defensible directions for expanding rural employment in Uzbekistan using only published, verifiable evidence and clearly separating observed results from modelled or expected outcomes. A structured secondary-data synthesis was conducted using official and institutional sources published between 2018 and July 2026. The evidence base included the National Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan, World Bank sector diagnostics and project results, a nationally representative 2025 informal-employment survey conducted by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, and UNDP, and peer-reviewed studies. Indicators were classified by geographic coverage, reference year, employment type, and evidence status. No causal effects were inferred where the underlying source reported only outputs or descriptive associations. In 2024, 49% of Uzbekistan’s approximately 37 million residents lived in rural areas. Agriculture accounted for 23.9% of national employment in 2023. A completed horticulture project reported more than 34,500 permanent jobs, about 22,000 seasonal jobs, and an additional 5,000 jobs in packaging, storage, and distribution. By December 2025, rural enterprise investments across more than 2,850 subprojects had generated more than 12,000 jobs, over half held by women and young people. At the same time, the 2025 informal-worker survey found that 83% of respondents had no paid leave, 80% lacked pension contributions, and 73% worked without safety protocols. Agricultural research spending was only 0.06% of gross agricultural output in 2023, despite an internationally referenced 0.5% benchmark.